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Alternative scenarios for the forecasting of the midwifery workforce : horizon scanning and elicitation : Synthesis [printed text] / Nadia Benahmed, Author ; Mélanie Lefevre , Author ; Imgard Vinck , Author ; Sabine Stordeur, Author . - Brussels [Belgium] : KCE = Federaal Kenniscentrum voor de Gezondheidszorg = Centre Fédéral d'Expertise des Soins de Santé = Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre, 2019 . - 34 p. : ill., ; A4. - (KCE Reports. Health Services Research (HSR); 312CS) .
ISSN : D/2019/10.273/29 : € 0,00
Languages : English (eng)

Descriptors:	Classification W 76 Health manpower and services, distribution and characteristics Indexation 2017-16 ; Forecasting ; Health Manpower ; Health Planning ; Health Services Needs and Demand ; Nurse midwives ; R312
Contents note:	1. INTRODUCTION 7 -- 2. METHODOLOGY 9 -- 2.1. SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF THE PROFESSION OF MIDWIFE 11 -- 2.1.1. Selection of the potential factors to take into account in scenarios for the future 11 -- 2.1.2. Grouping of the factors into clusters 11 -- 2.1.3. Impact and uncertainty analysis of the clusters 11 -- 2.1.4. Formulation of a theoretical framework for the narrative scenarios 11 -- 2.1.5. Generation of the narrative scenarios for projection of the midwife workforce 12 -- 3. IMPACT OF THE SCENARIOS ON THE DEMAND PARAMETERS OF THE FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE WORKFORCE OF MIDWIVES 14 -- 3.1. CARE CONSUMPTION IN THE BASIS SCENARIOS 14 -- 3.2. ENRICHED BASIS SCENARIOS: ‘BASELINE+’ 15 -- 3.3. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS 16 -- 3.3.1. Characteristics of the alternative scenarios 16 -- 3.3.2. Modelling the parameters specific to each scenario .17 -- 3.3.3. Allocation key 19 -- 3.4. RESULTS: EXPECTED VARIATIONS IN THE CONSUMPTION OF MIDWIFE SERVICES 19 -- 3.4.1. Baseline+: basis scenarios incorporating contextual factors and length of stay 19 -- 3.4.2. Scenario A (hospital/outpatient – gynaecologists) 20 -- 3.4.3. Scenario B (hospital-centered – midwives) 21 -- 3.4.4. Scenario C (outpatient – midwives) 22 -- 3.4.5. Summary table of the assumptions underlying Baseline+ and the three scenarios for the future 23 -- 3.4.6. Sensitivity analysis at the regional level 26 -- 3.4.7. Prediction intervals 28 -- 3.4.8. Additional alternative assumptions 28 -- 4. IMPACT OF THE SCENARIOS ON THE SUPPLY PARAMETERS OF THE FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE MIDWIFE WORKFORCE 29 -- 4.1. BASIS SCENARIOS 29 -- 4.2. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS 29 -- 5. DISCUSSION 30 -- 6. CONCLUSION 31 -- EFERENCES 33
Link for e-copy:	https://doi.org/10.57598/R312CS
Format of e-copy:	PDF (1,3 Mb)
Record link:	https://kce.docressources.info/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=4545