Soins résidentiels pour les personnes âgées en Belgique : projections 2011 – 2025 [printed text] / Karel Van den Bosch, Author ; Peter Willemé, Author ; Joanna Geerts, Author ; Jef Breda, Author ; Stéphanie Peeters, Author ; Stefaan Van de Sande  , Author ; France Vrijens , Author ; Carine Van de Voorde, Author ; Sabine Stordeur, Author . - Brussels [Belgium] : KCE = Federaal Kenniscentrum voor de Gezondheidszorg = Centre Fédéral d'Expertise des Soins de Santé = Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre, 2011 . - VI ,110 p. : ill. ; A4. - ( KCE Reports B. Health Services Research (HSR); 167B) . ISSN : D/2011/10.273/64 : € 0,00 Etude : 2010-23 Languages : English ( eng) French ( fre)
| Descriptors: |
Indexation
2010-23 ; Demography ; Forecasting ; Frail Elderly ; Health Services for the Aged ; Models, Statistical ; R167
Classification
WX 162 Patient care planning. Progressive patient care. Long term care
|
| Abstract: |
D’ici 15 ans, 1 belge sur 5 aura plus de 65 ans, et presque 3% de la population sera âgée de plus de 85 ans. Ayant à l’œil le vieillissement de la population, les décideurs politiques ont demandé au Centre Fédéral d’expertise des soins de santé (KCE) une estimation scientifique du nombre de lits nécessaires dans les maisons de repos au cours des 15 prochaines années. Grâce à la collaboration avec le Bureau fédéral du Plan, un modèle de projection a été développé. Les estimations réalisées indiquent que le nombre total de lits nécessaires à l’horizon 2025 est compris dans une fourchette allant de 149.000 à 177.000 lits, soit une augmentation annuelle de 1.600 à 3.500 lits supplémentaires selon les scénarios. La limite inférieure de 149.000 lits n’est toutefois suffisante que si l’offre de soins à domicile augmentait de 50% au-delà du développement requis par le vieillissement. Les 15 prochaines années doivent être considérées comme une période de grâce. Après 2025, la demande sera plus forte encore. |
| Contents note: |
ABRÉVIATIONS 5 -- INTRODUCTION 7 -- 1. GENERAL OVERVIEW OF LONG-TERM CARE ORGANISATION AND FINANCING IN BELGIUM 8 -- 1.1. ORGANIZATION AND FINANCING OF LONG-TERM CARE 8 -- 1.1.1. LTC benefits in kind and in cash 9 -- 1.1.2. Trends in LTC supply and use 12 -- 1.1.3. LTC financing 17 -- 1.2. DESCRIPTION OF REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN PROGRAMMING AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA 20 -- 1.2.1. Diverging development of residential beds within the Belgian regions 20 -- 1.2.2. Programming criteria of the three regions for the residential care sector 22 -- 1.2.3. Accreditation procedure and criteria for the residential care sector 25 -- 1.2.4. Eligibility criteria for admission to residential care 26 -- 1.2.5. Programming and development of service flats and home care services 26 -- 1.3. CONCLUSION 28 -- 2. A REVIEW OF LONG-TERM CARE PROJECTION MODELS 29 -- 2.1. INTRODUCTION 29 -- 2.2. LITERATURE SEARCH 29 -- 2.2.1. Search strategy 29 -- 2.2.2. Results 29 -- 2.3. LTC MODELS: SYNTHESIS OF RESULTS 30 -- 2.3.1. Types and characteristics of models 30 -- 2.3.2. Databases used in models 32 -- 2.3.3. Variables 33 -- 2.3.4. Regional estimates of demand for / use of long-term care 36 -- 2.3.5. The model of the Federal Planning Bureau 37 -- 2.4. PROJECTION RESULTS 38 -- 2.4.1. Introduction 38 -- 2.4.2. ‘Baseline’ projections 40 -- 2.4.3. Decomposition of the growth in LTC 41 -- 2.4.4. Scenarios 41 -- 2.4.5. Recent projections for Belgium 47 -- 2.5. CONCLUSIONS 50 -- 2.6. LESSONS LEARNED AND ADDED VALUE OF THE CURRENT PROJECT 51 -- 3. A REVIEW OF THE DETERMINANTS OF LONG-TERM CARE USE BY OLDER PEOPLE 52 -- 3.1. INTRODUCTION 52 -- 3.2. LITERATURE SEARCH 52 -- 3.3. MODELS AND METHODS 52 -- 3.3.1. Considerations and limitations 52 -- 3.3.2. Research designs and methods of analysis 53 -- 3.3.3. The Andersen behavioural model 53 -- 3.4. LITERATURE REVIEW: RESULTS 54 -- 3.4.1. Predictors of nursing home admission for the general population 57 -- 3.4.2. Predictors of nursing home admission in dementia 59 -- 3.4.3. Gender differences in nursing home placement 60 -- 3.4.4. Length of stay in, and exit from nursing home 60 -- 3.4.5. Predictors of formal home care use 60 -- 3.5. CONCLUSIONS 61 -- 3.6. LESSONS LEARNED AND ADDED VALUE OF THE CURRENT PROJECT 62 -- 4. SELECTION OF DATABASES 63 -- 4.1. INTRODUCTION 63 -- 4.2. DATA REQUIREMENTS OF THE PROJECT 63 -- 4.3. EXISTING DATABASES 63 -- 4.3.1. The Permanent Sample of Socially Insured Persons (EPS) 63 -- 4.3.2. The Health Interview Survey (HIS) 64 -- 4.4. CONCLUSION 65 -- 5. MODEL SPECIFICATION 66 -- 5.1. INTRODUCTION 66 -- 5.2. GENERAL OUTLINE OF THE PROJECTION MODEL 66 -- 5.3. STEP 1: PROJECTION OF ABSOLUTE NUMBERS BY AGE AND SEX 67 -- 5.4. STEP 2: PROJECTION OF THE PROPORTIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF LIVING SITUATION -- (AVAILABILITY OF INFORMAL CARE) 67 -- 5.5. STEP 3: PROJECTION OF THE PROPORTION IN DISABILITY BY AGE AND SEX 67 -- 5.6. STEP 4: PROJECTION OF LONG-TERM CARE USE BY AGE AND SEX 68 -- 5.7. THE PROJECTION MODEL IN SUMMARY 69 -- 6. MODEL OF DISABILITY USING HIS 2004 DATA 71 -- 6.1. DATA 71 -- 6.1.1. Dependent variable: ADL limitations: 71 -- 6.1.2. Independent variables 72 -- 6.1.4. Estimation approach 73 -- 6.2. RESULTS OF THE LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 74 -- 6.3. PREDICTION OF DISABILITY IN THE EPS 75 -- 7. MODELLING TRANSITIONS IN LONG-TERM CARE SITUATIONS, USING THE EPS 76 -- 7.1. INTRODUCTION 76 -- 7.2. DATA PREPARATION 76 -- 7.2.1. Selection of the working sample 76 -- 7.2.2. Dependent variable: construction of the LTC situation typology 77 -- 7.2.3. Independent variables 78 -- 7.3. ESTIMATION STRATEGY 79 -- 7.4. RESULTS 81 -- 7.4.1. Transition tables 81 -- 7.4.2. Results of binary and multinomial logistic regressions 83 -- 7.4.3. Predictive validity of the model for residential care 84 -- 8. PROJECTION RESULTS 88 -- 8.1. INTRODUCTION 88 -- 8.2. OVERALL EVOLUTION, BASE SCENARIO 88 -- 8.3. EVOLUTION BY PROVINCE, BASE SCENARIO 92 -- 8.4. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS 94 -- 8.4.1. Alternative scenarios on disability 94 -- 8.4.2. Alternative scenarios on household situation 96 -- 8.4.3. Alternative scenario on home care 97 -- 8.4.4. The scenarios compared 98 -- 9. OVERALL CONCLUSIONS 100 -- 9.1. RESIDENTIAL CARE CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS 2010-2025 100 -- 9.2. GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATION 101 -- 9.3. SENSITIVITY TO ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT DISABILITY AND LIVING -- SITUATION 101 -- 9.4. EXPANDING HOME CARE INSTEAD? 101 -- 9.5. THE PROJECTIONS IN LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE 102 -- 9.6. STAKEHOLDER MEETING 103 -- 10. REFERENCES 105 |
| Link for e-copy: |
https://doi.org/10.57598/R167B |
| Format of e-copy: |
PDF [Open Access](1,82 Mb) |
| Record link: |
https://kce.docressources.info/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=2819 |
|  |
Add the result to your basket Make a suggestion Refine your search Apply to external sourcesEvolutie van de uitgaven voor gezondheidszorg / Brussels [Belgium] : KCE = Federaal Kenniscentrum voor de Gezondheidszorg = Centre Fédéral d'Expertise des Soins de Santé = Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre (2005)
